View this email in your browser

With Tariffs, Americans Can’t Wait for the Long Run

Lura Forcum, April 10.

 Hi friends,   

I’m sure you’ve heard, but the stock market has been a bit all over the place as a result of President Trump’s new tariff plan.

With the stock market plummeting, the administration is claiming that tariffs are a necessary solution to fix America’s trade deficit “emergency.” Despite the frenzy on Wall Street, many Republicans have been quick to defend the measures, claiming this is likely to bring short-term pain with long-term gain. 

But here’s an inconvenient truth: according to a 2024 survey, nearly half of Americans agree or somewhat agree with the statement “I am living paycheck to paycheck.” Living on the financial edge isn’t limited to the poorest American households:  20% of households that earning more than $150,000 a year report living paycheck to paycheck. 

Short-term pain for long-term gain? Most Americans can’t afford to wait for the long term. 

The late economist John Maynard Keynes said it best: 

Understood. 

Consider this graphic posted by CNBC estimating how much the prices of everyday goods will go up with the new tariffs: 

These are everyday goods that Americans rely on. And these price increases are likely to have a direct impact on people’s quality of life.  

In the last election, the GOP came to power specifically because it promised to address affordability issues that have been frustrating voters. From eggs to gas, Americans understandably felt that Washington wasn’t paying attention to people’s economic concerns.  

This uncertainty doesn’t only affect consumers. It also affects small businesses. The majority of small businesses (which employ LOTS of Americans) don’t have enough cash on hand to handle this volatility. When uncertainty hits the markets, big customers hold on buying, contracts are put on hold, and the economy slows down significantly.

How long Americans are willing to “trust the process” remains to be seen. People living paycheck to paycheck may not be able to wait very long.  

Best, 

Lura 

Contact us if you’d like to be interviewed

Riding the Independent Wave

Timing is everything. So why not now?

Latest News from the Independent Center

• House Procedural Move Blocks Any Attempts to Eliminate Costly Tariffs

Speaking Appearances

Trust in government is declining — not just at the national level, but even in our state and local institutions, where it’s traditionally been stronger.

Last week at the American Society for Public Administration, Lura joined an insightful panel on how to rebuild that trust.

Key Takeaway: Trust isn’t just a value. It’s a byproduct of a healthy relationship.

And relationships — whether between friends, neighbors, or elected officials and constituents — are built on exchange and accountability.

IC Mailbag

Is the U.S. political system equipped to handle a president who defies legal and institutional boundaries?

The Constitution created mechanisms for one branch of government to check the power of the others. Hyper-partisanship has, to a significant degree, prevented Congress from using the tools it has available. The Constitution isn’t self-enforcing. Ultimately, it’s up to “We the People” to say when we’ve had enough of the blurring of constitutional boundaries on the branches of government, violation of the rule of law, and the eradication of democratic norms. 

Do you think Trump’s tariffs are more about political strategy than economic benefit?

Trump has long supported tariffs. We’re talking about nearly 40 years of statements complaining about trade policy and promoting tariffs to bring manufacturing to the United States. The problem is that tariffs are economically destructive and much of what serves as the foundation of Trump’s beliefs is flawed. For example, manufacturing has been doing well and remained stable over the past several years. The vast majority of the jobs lost in the manufacturing sector have happened because of automation, not trade or outsourcing. It’s bad economics, which is why the stock market cratered and why Trump backed off on the reciprocal tariffs, even though he left the 10 percent global tariff and sector-based tariffs in place.

Do you think Trump is purposefully crashing the stock market?

It’s hard to answer this. Trump and his advisers want to bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States and reduce the trade deficit. They can’t do that without steep losses in stocks. Anyone who is trying to make sense of what they’re doing needs to read up on the “Mar-a-Lago Accord” to really understand what Trump wants to do. The reaction of the stock market and the sell-off of Treasury securities really highlight why the “Mar-a-Lago Accord” won’t work.

This Week in Congress

• House approves Trump budget blueprint after winning over GOP holdouts

• The House passed legislation Wednesday that would limit the power of lower court judges to issue orders

• House votes to overturn Biden-era rule limiting bank overdraft fees to $5, sends to Trump to sign

What We’re Reading

The Atlantic: Americans Want to Be Rich

By: Reihan Salam and Charles Fain Lehman

Wall Street Journal: The Art of the 90 Day Tariff Pause

By: Karl Rove

The Independent Center is the go-to organization for information, research, and engagement with independent voters, who now make up the plurality of the electorate.

We represent those who are fed up with partisan politics and feel politically homeless. We believe the future is not red or blue; it’s fiscally responsible, socially inclusive, and free to choose the best options for ourselves, our families, and our communities.

Copyright (C) Our mailing address is:The Independent CenterPO Box 26141Alexandria, VA 22313-6131 USAWant to change how you receive these emails?

You can unsubscribe